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U.S. tariff announcements

6 October 2026

Could confusing policies be as damaging as bad ones?

That question was on my mind after reading a new study by Manova, Novy, Sampson, and Tang on the impact of last year’s US tariffs on trade. The country’s tariffs were adjusted 41 times in 2025. The study’s authors found that confusion about these changes cut US imports by about as much as the tariffs themselves. Take Chinese shoes. Over just 40 days, additional duties on these imports went from 20% to 30%, then 54%, 104%, 145%, and back to 30%.

Apparently customised goods and stronger trust offset some of the negative effects of confusion. Relationships matter most in uncertainty.

Upper bounds to global poverty

8 September 2026

There’s a big difference between escaping poverty and reaching some level of security.

While updating a class on measuring poverty and inequality, I came across a recent paper by Pritchett & Viarengo that makes the case for an upper bound to global poverty set at least ten times above the lower bound (currently $3/day). This chart shows both lines for countries with available data. Billions of people live between the two bounds – not living in extreme poverty, but not fully free of it either.

It’s a useful reminder of how our definitions shape what we see.

What’s worrying central bankers

11 May 2026

War, trade, and crypto. Apparently that’s what has been keeping central bankers up at night.

They appear to have declining interest in health (understandable, as the pandemic faded) and climate change (less understandable, to say the least). And they may be the only people without much to say about AI – for now, anyway.

While all these topics are mostly outside of the scope of traditional monetary policy, central bankers’ words move markets by signaling priorities and policy decisions. For all their influence, they face the same uncertainties as the rest of us. What topics are likely to be the focus of their speeches in 2026?

U.S. tariffs

26 March 2026

A number of countries’ exports showed resilience to U.S. tariffs over the past year, thanks to high demand for particular products, closely integrated supply chains, and displacing other producers. New data in the coming months will show the impact of the end of IEEPA tariffs in February.

Income & emissions

16 March 2026

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, though not as fast as income. A number of richer economies are growing while cutting emissions per person. However, the average person in a high income country still emits nearly 9 times more than one in a low income country. Other sources suggest this disparity may be even greater.

Declining global poverty

12 February 2026

The fall in global poverty since the beginning of the century has been impressive. Using the new international poverty line ($3/day), the number of people in extreme poverty has more than halved since 2000.

Progress is possible. However, it has not been fast enough to meet eradication targets. And it has been unevenly spread. As this chart shows, much of the drop in poverty headcounts comes from China alone.